Bradley Howard's Blog

Views of digital media, innovation, loyalty and business in the real world

Contactless and mobile payments

On Sunday I popped into my local butcher (they haven’t all been put out of business by hypermarkets) and tried paying using my contactless debit card. At first, the guy behind the till didn’t want me to use contactless because he didn’t think his till could handle it, but I tried and he was amazed how fast the transaction was finished.

We work very closely with one of the big European payments companies, and had been discussing contactless with them last week, and so I told the sales assistant in the butcher that his transaction fees cost less using contactless than chip and PIN. He said that he’d tell his boss.

The timing was interesting because this morning I went to a presentation at Intellect, “Contactless payments: A retailer's perspective” by Julian Niblett from Boots.

Here are some of the key points from the presentation, together with his view of the future, and I’ve added some of my comments as well.

  • Boots are the second biggest retailer in the UK with 2,600 stores
  • At the moment a third of transactions use a card
  • Only 30 stores have contactless - a joint investment with MasterCard
  • Less than 2% of card transactions are contactless 

In terms of the value proposition for the retailer, given a choice between rolling out more self-checkouts and contactless, the former will always win because contactless has far less value to the consumer.

That said, their analysis is that first time customers who try using contactless it will continue to reuse it.

Julian asked how many people in the room have used a contactless card. Around a third put up their hands, which is well above the national average. Julian pointed out that watching consumers use a self-checkout, many people still aren't sure how to insert their card into a card reader properly let alone ‘educate’ them to use another physical method of payment.

One of the issues in Boots’ case is that there’s no business case to offer contactless. Cash is still the cheapest cost at 0.5p per transaction (many of the costs of cash are both subsidised by the banks, and many of the ‘costs of cash’ are fixed). 

Also, contactless transactions cost less for a retailer, but the retailers are wary of the payment companies who have usually increased costs once a new technology rollout hits tipping point. This happened with chip and PIN, and retailers expect the same to happen from contactless.

The near term future

·         Tfl will use contactless cards as an alternative to Oyster this year. This will help the wider public use contactless more often, and consumers are expected to start using them more often in retailers.

·         Visa are going to be helping Boots with a wider rollout across London due to the Olympics.

The longer term

One of the key issues at the moment is that there is no customer demand for contactless. However, retailers can see that there is a demand for using a mobile phone for payments.

We all have more and more cards in our wallets for payment and loyalty schemes. Both of these will move into a smartphone apps, with numerous retailers already leading the way, and PayPal and Google Checkout leading the way with their payment apps.

Julian discussed a great consumer experience all based on a mobile, with coupons, a store loyalty card, payment and electronic receipts, and probably no need for a till at the end of the shopping trip. However there are very few customers who want to shop this way at the moment.

It was a really interesting presentation, and if you’re in the banking or retailer value chain, you should probably get in contact with Julian as he was very open with his analysis and data points (some of which I can’t publish here).

My take on contactless payments is that it will move to mobile, but it will become more complicated for consumers. My debit and credit cards have never run out of battery before – what happens when you want to buy something but have no battery in your phone. In fact, my cards are designed to be much more rugged than my phone – not only do they not require any power at all, they’re also waterproof and shock proof. And therefore they will stick around for a long time.


 

Review of my 2011 predictions

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Back in January I made 12 predictions for digital media for 2011. I did the same for 2010 - i.e. I made the predictions and then analysed them in December, and faired well. How did I do this year?

1. Rapid demise of Flash

Bang on here. We're witnessing HTML5 rapidly overtaking Flash, mainly because users want to view sites on their iOS devices, which don't support Flash. Flash for mobiles has been dropped in favour of Adobe Air - the problem with Air (an irony in the product name) is that it's too heavy for downloading over mobile: Adobe Air apps are very large. HTML5 is both very powerful and not linked to a specific vendor, which is exactly the type of technology web developers embrace quickly.

Prediction rating: 10/10

2. Local local local

The use of Google on mobile devices is increasingly rapidly, and one of Google's most powerful functions is to provide local results on mobile devices. Facebook Check In and FourSquare will continue competing in the future, providing more relevant functionality which is only good for end consumers.

Prediction rating: 10/10

3. LinkedIn to IPO

Yes, LinkedIn IPO'd in the summer at a market capitalisation of around $6bn. At the end of the first day of trading, shares were selling at over $94. They are now worth just under $65. The actual variance has been from $55 to $122. Personally I think the future is very bright for LinkedIn, as long as it sticks to it's core, professional-only values and steers cleer of Facebook.

Prediction rating: 10/10 

4. More "paywalls" will increase the expectations of having to pay for content

I predicted that we'd see at least six mainstream publications start charging for online content. What was very difficult to predict was that this was going to be made possible via the iPad. The iPad has been the saviour of global newspapers by offering a simple charging model for content owners. Many newspaper websites are still free, but most apps charge for content. The main point is that user now expect to pay for content, but it took the shift to a new platform to illustrate this.

Prediction rating: 8/10 

5. Financial Services move into social networks

Banks have had other things to worry about this year, and whilst many are dipping their toes into the water with Twitter and Facebook, I'm not aware of any doing it particularly well. Searching for the popular high street banks on Facebook returns a rather fragmented list. I expect this to change in the near future. 

Prediction rating: 2/10 

Facebook_popularity1

6. Facebook to follow Compuserve even more

Try and name a brand that isn't on Facebook. In January I said that we should expect a Skype messaging style interface and in July, we got Skype inside Facebook. I predicted we'd have a billion users by the end of the year, although this is unlikely to come true because in September, Facebook announced they'd broken through 800 million users - still an amazing feat. 

Prediction rating: 8/10

7. A clear leader will emerge in Interactive TV

Interactive TV is now firmly called Smart TV, and no, a clear leader hasn't emerged yet. The remotes all look different, and operating systems are different, and with the latest XBox release, Microsoft is putting up a decent fight to use your games console as the Interactive device.

Prediction rating: 0/10

8. Rapid rise in CPC

I said that CPC rates would rise, and noted the cost of some terms. Here they are:

keyword

Cost in
December 2011

Cost in
December 2012

ebook  £0.55

£0.74

sandwich  £1.00

£1.05

drink  £1.00

N/A

laptop   £1.25

£1.31

paper  £0.75

£0.76

I estimated costs would increase at least 50% over the next year however they have mostly gone up a much smaller amount, with the exception of the highly competitive ebook market.

Prediction rating: 2/10

9. A $50 A5 eReader

I was $10 out - Walmart are selling an eReader for under $60. Bearing in mind there was nothing available for less than $120 at the start of the year, this demonstrates how mainstream eReaders have become. 

Prediction rating: 6/10

10. App stores will decentralise, leading to confused customers (again)

The term app store has become abused. Now everyone has an app store whereas a year ago their product had an 'add-on'. If you go into a car showroom I'd half expect the optional extras to be available from an app-store! Fortunately the market hasn't become decentralised as predicted - to the benefit of end users.

Prediction rating: 0/10

11. The economy will continue to splutter

Obviously this has come true. I predicted that companies would need to start demonstrating clear revenues, including Twitter, and this has materialised as $140million this year.

Prediction rating: 10/10

12. Chrome to far exceed Firefox market share

Perhaps 'far exceed' is an exaggeration, however in early December Chrome overtook Firefox for the first time, and it's here to stay. I'm a big fan of Chrome for a number of reasons (all the settings are stored centrally "in the cloud", it auto updates seamlessly and it's very fast), and hardly use Firefox any longer.

Prediction rating: 8/10

So there we have it. Overall I was reasonably accurate with the predictions. I'm working on 2012 predictions, which feels more difficult at this time. Maybe it's the economy/ general outlook. Any help would be appreciated!

Photo courtesy of lacomj on Flickr


 

The migration of Digital Money

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The scan above is from this week's edition of my local newspaper.

There are two popular pairs of terms used to describe users in Internet terms - Digital Migrants and Digital Natives, and Gen X and Gen Y. Personally I prefer the first term because it describes the groups perfectly.

Digital Migrants are pretty much anyone over about 20 years old, who remembers life before The Internet. They (errr, 'we') had to change our mindset to adjust with the cultural and technological challenges and advances the Internet has provided. Digital Natives are the opposite group - those under about 20, who don't know any different.

Back to the article in the newspaper.

I have two thoughts regarding the 81 year old Mr Moller (and yes, I do think his age is important):

  1. The poor old pensioner. Not everyone needs or wants a mobile phone. It's neither an identity or mandatory device (yet) and it should be up to individuals whether to have one or not. The pace of change is happening too quickly. After 40 years of credit cards (25 years older than mobiles), you can still live a perfectly normal life without plastic. Migration through technologies should be a slower process.
  2. It's evolution. Yes you can live life without a credit card, however you can also live life without cash too, and just use plastic. It's natural evolution to move from cash, to plastic, to mobiles. In fact Mr Moller highlights the very real possibility of jumping straight from cash to mobiles. Mobile penetration is above 84%, so it's perfectly reasonable to expect everyone to have one.

Earlier this week we ran an event at Endava called The Future of Social Media for Financial Services. At the event, the author Richard Watson gave a speech on The Future of Money. I wasn't quite expecting to read an article in my local paper the following day highlighting that it's not so much about the future... it's already happening right now.


 

Speaking at Social Media Week

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Next Thursday Endava are hosting an event as part of Social Media Week in association with one of our platform stack partners, Telligent.

We decided to create the event because many of our Financial Services clients are asking us why they should be using social media. Note that there's a big difference in our world between social media and social networks.

We started planning the event a while ago and then saw that Social Media Week are organising a number of events next week, so we moved it back a fortnight.

I'll be discussing some of the basic principles of social media for Financial Services. We also have a couple of banks talking about their experiences with social media, and just as importantly - where they think it's going. These are senior managers within banks, because social media has become a serious consideration for them.

The final speaker of the evening is the author Richard Watson. I've written some reviews of Richard's books in this blog before, and contributed some comments to his blog too. Meeting Richard as part of the research for the event was an experience in itself - his office is a floating battleship on the Thames, and he's a fascinating chap.

Altogether I'm looking forward to the event as I always do. I'm pretty excited about listening to the other speakers - we deliberately sought out to find people with their own strong opinions on where this type of technology is going, and boy do they have opinions.

If you're interested in attending, register here very soon because there are only a few spaces remaining. As I mentioned, it is highly targeted towards Financial Services. We're planning to do a follow up event later this year for other industries. 


 

Twelve Digital Media Predictions for 2011

2011

Well here we are. 2011 predictions below. My 2010 predictions worked out pretty good and I've been asked for the 2011 predictions for the last six weeks.

1. Rapid demise of Flash

Flash has two big problems in 2010: Apple (specifically, the iPhone and iPad) and HTML 5. I don't see Apple relenting on their decision to enable Flash (specifically pre-compiled code), and users will start moving away from Flash sites out of necessity. Developers already like HTML 5, and it looks reasonably flexible to replace a lot of what Flash has historically need to be used for. YouTube is already using HTML 5 to deliver video. If the BBC iPlayer is using HTML 5 next year, let's award 10/10 for this prediction!

2. Local local local

Local businesses will 'never have had it better'. FourSquare, Facebook Pages and Places, and Google Places can all help local businesses. My local sandwich shop at work can now have a digital relationship with consumers for no cost. The rising use of smartphones will continue to provide more local results when searching (for example, type in hospital into Google on your smartphone - even at the moment it produces a list of local results).

3. LinkedIn to IPO

The Facebook for business, the most useful social network of them all if you want to hire staff, track companies, keep in touch with former colleagues, research 'people' will float in 2011. 

4. More "paywalls" will increase the expectations of having to pay for content

Paywalls will undergo new branding, and together with mobile apps charging a subscription fee, the days of free content will start coming to an end. I'm not saying all sites will become pay only within a year, however expect to see at least another half dozen main titles beyond Murdoch's empire start charging for their hard work.

5. Financial Services move into social networks

Financial services are walking around social networks scratching their heads wondering how to approach the biggest B2C of all time. I predict at least one Financial Services organisation will get it right, and everyone else will copy and improve. Expect some big announcements of huge Financial Services brands linking together with the big social networks.

6. Facebook to follow Compuserve even more

I've likened Facebook to the walled garden environment of Compuserve before. Expect to see 'new' features in Facebook like sending files to friends, Facebook wireless access points or even broadband provision (remember - Compuserve started life as an ISP), premium (paid entrance) Facebook Pages, offline browsing or a phone service (think Google Talk or Skype). We'll all think it's brilliant, and then read the Wikipedia Compuserve article and realise we've been here before. I also expect Facebook to break into China and reach 1 billion global users.

7. A clear leader will emerge in Interactive TV

Buying a new TV at the moment? Which Internet/Interactive TV standard are you going to buy? There are so many types available, it's really confusing to consumers. By the end of the year (Christmas 2011) there will be one or two clear leaders. And expect to see a wireless keyboard lying on your sofa next year or 2012 instead of a simple remote.

8. Rapid rise in CPC

Ad CPC (Cost Per Click) rates are rapidly rising. Take the biggest network, Google AdWords. The cost per click of the following items as of 29/12 is:

  • ebook - £0.55
  • sandwich - £1.00
  • drink - £1.00
  • laptop - £1.25
  • paper - £0.75

I estimate costs will go up at least 50% over the next year because of the growth of online businesses, and they will all want to advertise their products.

9. A $50 A5 eReader

eReaders will hit a critical mass when the price point is low enough. I estimate this to be around $50 (£35) because this is a reasonable price point where a consumer won't be too upset at losing their eReader. At that point, schools will seriously consider replacing paper books with eReaders. Expect more mainstream books to only be available electronically.

10. App stores will decentralise, leading to confused customers (again)

The beauty of the iPhone's app store is that all apps come through the store tested and vetted. It also provides a full backup solution if you regularly synchronise your iPhone with a computer. The Android Market is the opposite - it's like anarchy! Apple are releasing their own full app store for Apple computers. Amazon will do something similar. You'll have lots of app store logins, and it will all be confusing. In fact it will become so fragmented that it will be similar to how you buy software at the moment - one piece comes from Amazon, another from Apple, another from eBuyer, and so on.

11. The economy will continue to splutter

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to work this one out. However the implications will be that brands will drive their marketing organisations to produce clearer ROI on campaigns (especially Facebook, to pay for the expensive UK based full time Community Managers). This is currently difficult to do, but marketing departments will drive analytics vendors to improve their products beyond just referrer stats. Despite huge funding increases at the end of 2010, Twitter will need to start generating some serious revenues, so expect ads on Twitter similar to the reach blocks on Facebook.

12. Chrome to far exceed Firefox market share

Chrome is here to stay, and will only increase market share when the new Google laptop (and tablet) arrives. Microsoft won't back down on Internet Explorer either. Which leaves Firefox in third place, and will just slide further down because users won't know why they'll want a third browser on their computer.


 

It's not the bankers' fault

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After working in the City for a little over 12 months now, I think I've come to realise that it's not the greed of the investment bankers for the recession, it's their environmental bubble called the City of London.

I came into work yesterday, battling with the Tube strike (I don't use the motorbike when it's less than 1 degree), only to see a Ferrari and Maserati driving past the exit to Bank Station. Apparently the bankers are unaffected by Tube strikes.

Today, like 60-odd million other Britons, I woke up to see the country under a white blanket. People on the tube were wearing Wellington boots, hiking boots and clothing suitable for Everest. I came out of Bank station - not a flake of snow had settled on the ground. The snow was like a light rain. The bankers probably didn't even realise the snow had settled outside of The Square Mile.

My point here is that the City of London is like an 'almost artificial' bubble that is unaffected by extremities that the rest of the country faces. And that's not their fault!

Photo courtesy of Jon Curnow.


 

Change: the enemy of stability, sometimes

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I'm a great fan of change at work.

Sometimes I like change for the necessity of just changing something. As a small example, at work I recommend people keep moving desks a couple of times a year, to sit next to different people (for many reasons - spread knowledge, establish a good, deeper relationship with different people, get a different perspective, and so on). 

The one element of change at work that I don't like is system changes. When I speak to friends outside of work, they are amazed at why organisations need such large IT organisations, or even why a website needs so many technical resources.

Changing a system always brings a level of risk. Always. No matter how much everyone thinks "nothing can go wrong" - and yes, I hear this from experienced people as much as junior people - it can always come back and bite.

Unfortunately, the only way that you can assess risks of change appropriately is to be burnt (aka "get it wrong"). And after being burnt, its important to act almost scared of it happening again.

Several years ago we made a small modification to a website on a Friday afternoon. You can tell what happened next - there was a problem, and we all ended up working late into the weekend. Since then, we have a blanket rule of no live rollouts after Friday lunchtime.

I spoke to a senior manager at Endava about this recently, and he said that whenever his Managed Services division engage with a new client having stability issues, the first thing they improve or implement if it doesn't already exist is a full Change Request procedure. This immediately requires people to stop fire fighting and think about any changes. And it always reaps rapid improvements. 

Another example is that retail banks have a code freeze during the last quarter of the year, to prevent anything impacting Xmas sales. On some of our sports websites at work, Xmas can be the busiest period (e.g. football). However we insist on a system wide freeze well before the Xmas period, and this creates the highest level of stability of the year. Let me repeat - the busiest time of the year in the most stable!

People adapt to change well. Even if it requires some help during the initial change 'shock'. However systems rarely respond to change well.


 

Bradley Howard

Head of Digital Media at Endava, although all the views in this blog are purely mine and not necessarily those of Endava.

 

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