Bradley Howard's Blog

Review of my 2010 predictions

Dec 24, 2010 at 11:16am

Back in January I made 10 predictions for Digital Media for 2010. Being open and transparent, how did these predictions fair over the year?

Reinvestment in Digital Media.
2010 was a great year for agencies. We have implemented a number of very large websites, both brand new brands and existing ones. In terms of reinvestment, clients are now looking into cloud computing and full disaster recovery.
Prediction rating: 10/10
Lack of new products due to R&D being slashed in 2009.
Looking back at new applications and products - what was released that made a big impact? The iPad (at the beginning of the year before being launched it was referred to as the iSlate). I predicted that the end of the year would see some launches, and Kinect was released in November. Before you start commenting that 2010 was the year of 3D TV, they were in fact launched in 2009.
Prediction rating: 10/10
A number of live events on YouTube.
Well, in September they launched live streaming. However I doubt most people really noticed. I'll knock some points off because I said "live is where the value is".
Prediction rating: 8/10
More Flex applications, less Silverlight.
Hmmm - more site are using Flex (BBC iPlayer download for example). HTML 5 changed the landscape significantly, and due to the ongoing spat between Apple and Adobe, agencies are nervous about any single vendor, and will move to the latest version of HTML instead.
Prediction rating: 3/10
SecondLife to further decline.

Second-what? The LindenX has just flattened out for the last couple of years - which means no more money is coming into the platform.
Prediction rating: 9/10
The UK to start accepting blogging at the same status as the US.
Absolutely. UK news programmes now interview blogging experts for their views and opinions. Blogs are quoted in the press (errr, but so is Twitter, so maybe it's just reporters' laziness).
Prediction rating: 10/10
Offline browsers make a comeback.
Perhaps 12 months ahead of it's time, this prediction didn't materialise. Before you think there is a gap in the market, we have been approached by a number of vendors in this space.
Prediction rating: 2/10
The FIFA World Cup sees huge use of video over mobile & broadband.
It's easy to forget the World Cup this year. If you were streaming it though, your view of the summer was probably very different to England supporters. Internet traffic reached a record peak (of almost 1Tb/sec) due to video over mobile and broadband.
Prediction rating: 10/10
Expect ebooks to take off.
Ebooks have exceeded all expectations for booksellers, so I was correct there. However magazines, sports programmes and other paper publications have been slow to move to ebooks, mainly because Amazon and other ebook retailers want such a high slice of the revenue. So if you're a football club that sells a programme for £3 or £4, you really don't want a new middleman taking 20-30% of your revenue to sell the book electronically.
Prediction rating: 5/10
2010... the year of Web CRM
There is still a major opportunity for a cloud based platform with efficient pricing. I do not understand why there isn't a white label SSO platform out there. Let me know if you can recommend one.
Prediction rating: 0/10

Pretty good going overall. Any more accurate and I'd be an octopus.

I'll post an article on 2011 predictions next week.

Photo courtesy of Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup good news.

tags:

Adobe, CRM, Content Delivery Network, FLex, SecondLife, Silverlight, World Cup, YouTube, blogging, digital media, ebooks, predictions, video, web traffic, website production,

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Why are eBooks more expensive than paper?

Dec 9, 2010 at 10:50pm

If you have any thoughts on this, I'd be happy to hear. Personally I can't understand why Stephen King's latest book is £12.99 on a Kindle, £8.99 as a paperback and hardback is £8.20.

If the Kindle were free, I would understand that the ebooks need to help subsidise the cost of the device. Only the Kindle costs more than £100, and whilst I doubt Amazon make a huge profit from the device, I doubt it makes a loss.

Any suggestions?

tags:

Amazon, blog comment, ebooks,

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A technology review from New York

May 11, 2010 at 10:13pm

I have spent the last few days in New York for a family celebration. I took my son (aged 8) and we had a great time.

I've come back to a different government and seen the ash cloud with my own eyes (I can report it's a bit underwhelming).

Over in New York, we visited the top of the Empire State Building (86th floor, because the 102nd was closed that day) and a whole host of other tourist activities. We also visited FAO Schwarz of 'BIG' fame where he played the now famous 'piano'. Once we'd visited FAO, we went to the Apple store which is literally outside the front door.

Inside the Apple store, which was absolutely mobbed - much busier than I've seen similar stores in Paris or London - I saw the new iPad. Apparently the device has sold its first million units in 28 days. Staggering, considering it's [very] heavy, difficult to type (my thumbs couldn't meet in the middle even in portrait mode) and doesn't support Flash (so my son's favourite kids websites didn't work).

As someone at work described it - it's a perfect coffee table device that people will pick up, check a couple of webpages and put down. I can't see it replacing a laptop for email.

On the Sunday it was Mother's Day in the US and my cousins bought my aunt a Kindle. It's a pretty smart device. Straight out of the box it picked up a wireless connection quicker than my iPhone in the same apartment (and oddly didn't need a password).

The text is incredible - much more readable than a laptop or computer flat screen. The usability is what you would expect of Amazon, downloading books easily and quickly (you can start reading the book instantly - before it's downloaded the rest of the book). Whilst the average non technical user will love a Kindle (until they drop it on the floor in their bedroom, or the swimming pool on holiday), I think technical users would find it frustrating that it's not as powerful (or as colourful) as an iPad.

I thought it was interesting showing my son the Kindle and telling him that the chances are, in a couple of years time he won't be carrying books to school - all the books will be on an electronic device like this.

Another interesting observation is that Amazon are keen not to repeat the same mistakes of the Internet's free content model on their device. All newspapers and books require a paid subscription on the Kindle.

One word of warning if you are going to buy an iPad as a present - by default it comes logged in as the buyer. That means the lucky recipient will open the box, switch the device on... and see the recommendations that Amazon suggests for the buyer. So if you've bought anything from Amazon that you'd be normally be embarrassed by, I would suggest you switch the Kindle on and logout, before handing over the [very nice] present.

tags:

Amazon, Kindle, ebooks, ipad, technology,

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Ten Digital Media Predictions for 2010

Jan 20, 2010 at 9:06pm

Here are my predictions for the coming year. In 12 months time, let's review what actually happened!

1. Reinvestment in Digital Media.

Based on a lack of investment in 2009, I think a lot of companies will see a website revamp, or a new product version appearing in 2010. This will be especially true of companies who chose to 'cut corners' in 2009, for example deciding to build their own proprietary CMS. This coming year, they'll choose to re-engineer the same site using an off-the-shelf, or even open source CMS.

2. Lack of new products due to R&D being slashed in 2009.

I'm not sure we'll see so many new Spotifys (Spotifies?) appearing in 2010, because of a lack of investment/R&D budget last year. Maybe we'll see new stuff appear at the end of the year though. The exceptions will be anything from Apple, with the imminent launch of their iSlate.

3. A number of live events on YouTube.

Yup, live is where the value is. And Google know this. So expect some new live events appearing on the platform in 2010.

4. More Flex applications, less Silverlight.

Flex will succeed because the creative agencies like Adobe and not Microsoft. This might change in the longer term, but for 2010, expect to see some sites migrate into very funky (I can't use the adjective flash here!) Flex applications.

5. SecondLife to further decline.

Yup, not many people are writing about SecondLife these days. My own personal view is that in the long term, the web will be accessible through a graphical interface probably not far off SecondLife, but for the next 5-10 years, the standard browser is very much here to stay. The LindeX (the market to sell real world cash for made up cash - quite remarkable really) is in a steady decline, and the data has been moved from publicly available to a free signup. Here's the graph as of today. Next yearm expect the graph to be totally unavailable, or in steep decline. A shame, but some technologies are just too ahead of their time.

6. The UK to start accepting blogging at the same status as the US.

In the US, bloggers have almost the same status as journalists. That's a bit of a sweeping statement, and my apologies to journalists who have had a turbulent couple of years, and an even bleaker future for a trade that's totally unfairly undervalued. Anyway, in the US, bloggers are often quoted by journalists and news organisations, whereas in the UK they are dismissed by the news organisations. Of course there are some exceptions such as The Guardian, but in the main, most people think that bloggers are nerds/IT geeks. This is a view which Twitter & the term 'microblogging' has helped to change slowly, but by 2011, I expect to see some famous UK bloggers be quoted by the press.

7. Offline browsers make a comeback.

My view of the Internet is that the same applications are constantly being re-invented. Facebook is like a modern version of Compuserve (a nice clean, walled environment); Skype is ICQ on steroids; Spotify is Real Networks (OK, just sort of!); Twitpic is like a billion free image sharing sites; today I even stumbled across a 'directory' of Twitter users - and directories kind of died off a few years ago! I remember installing offlines browsers on my Palm V in the mid 1990s, which effectively downloaded snapshots of a website on to my Palm, for me to read on the way home. I had a similar application on a few early mobile phones. Expect similar applications on iPhones, Kindles and iSlates to start appearing, so that users of the Tube and other areas can read articles on the move, outside of an RSS reader.

8. The FIFA World Cup sees huge use of video over mobile & broadband.

Put it another way, if it doesn't, expect to see broadcasters and mobile operators to pull out of mobile video for the foreseeable future. Expect some amazing stats for broadband use from Sky, ESPN & FIFA. In 2005 we were discussing a 10 deal for bandwidth that went into Petabytes, and everyone thought we were mad. Expect to see that word banded around a lot during the World Cup.

9. Expect ebooks to take off.

This has the potential for a huge market. I estimate football club programmes, concert programmes, manuals, etc. all to be available in ebook formats, either free or very low cost by the end of the year. It will be a mini-reinvention of MP3s...

10. 2010... the year of Web CRM

I have no idea why it's taken so long for a vendor to come up with a Web based CRM system. Facebook Connect, Windows Live signin & Google Orkut are the main contenders, but does a major website really want to release their list of customers to be shared with Facebook, Microsoft or Google? No. There are CRM vendors who charge a 'per user' model - which is useless for a free sign up model. A number of the newsletter systems are extending into this area - with Traction probably being the most attractive. But if you want a standalone web authentication and single customer view with Single Sign On (SSO), who are the sub $50k vendors? Exactly. So expect to see new players start appearing here.

tags:

CRM, FLex, SecondLife, Silverlight, YouTube, blogging, digital media, ebooks, finance, islate, loyalty, media, predictions, social media, spotify, top 10, trends,

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Review of my 2010 predictions

Why are eBooks more expensive than paper?

A technology review from New York

Ten Digital Media Predictions for 2010

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