Bradley Howard's Blog

Views of digital media, innovation, loyalty and business in the real world

A look at New York Times digital revenues

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The New York Times has announced some details of it's online premium subscription (i.e. cash payment) model.

Full details

Digital

Digital businesses include NYTimes.com, BostonGlobe.com, Boston.com, About.com, other Company Web sites and related digital products. In the third quarter of 2011, total digital advertising revenues decreased 4.5 percent to $74.8 million from $78.3 million. Digital advertising revenues at the News Media Group increased 6.2 percent to $50.3 million from $47.4 million due to growth in retail and national display advertising. Digital advertising revenues as a percentage of total Company advertising revenues were 28.6 percent for the third quarter of 2011 compared with 27.3 percent in the third quarter of 2010.

In the first nine months of 2011, the Company's total digital advertising revenues increased 0.9 percent to $242.9 million from $240.7 million. Digital advertising revenues at the News Media Group increased 12.2 percent to $162.4 million from $144.7 million. Digital advertising revenues as a percentage of total Company advertising revenues were 28.2 percent for the first nine months of 2011 compared with 26.3 percent in the first nine months of 2010.

Paid digital subscribers to The Times digital subscription packages, e-readers and replica editions totaled approximately 324,000 as of the end of the third quarter of 2011. In addition to these paid digital subscribers, as of the end of the third quarter of 2011, The Times had more than 100,000 highly engaged users sponsored by Ford Motor Company's luxury brand, Lincoln, who have free access to NYTimes.com and smartphone apps until the end of the year, and approximately 800,000 home-delivery subscribers with linked digital accounts, who receive free digital access. In total, The Times had paid and sponsored relationships with over 1.2 million digital users as of the end of the third quarter of 2011.

Source: The New York Times Company

My interpretation

  • In the last quarter, there were 1.2 million registered users, of whom 324,000 paid something, and 100,000 were paid for by Ford (a great subscription model as long as there are no catches for either party) and 800,000 were covered by their print subscription. In other words, they have a churn of about 25%.
  • The site has 45 million unique visitors per month as of January 2011 - it's interesting that they use comScore to quote that 45 million. ComScore use an estimated data model, as opposed to NYT using their own actual data.
  • Anyway, 45 million unique users and 324,000 have paid something - that's a conversion rate of less than one percent, however paid for content is still very much in its infancy.
  • Those 45 million users probably don't include Smartphone users or e-readers (hats off to ComScore if that can get that data, however I suspect they can't).
  • Doing some extremely rough sums, subscriptions are 99 cents for the first 4 weeks and then $3.75 per week thereafter. Let's ignore the special offer price and let's assume Ford pay a full $3.75 per user. Ignoring the print subscribers who get the digital edition for free, that's a total revenue of $1.59 million per week. Let's assume NYT earned this revenue throughout the entire quarter (12 weeks), that's a total of $19 million for the quarter.
  • Digital advertising across the group (and this includes a number of other websites and newspapers) generated $74.8 million.

Lessons to take away from this quarterly statement

  • The premium digital content model still has a way to go - advertising still generated four times the revenue as subscribers.
  • 'Wholesale' or 'sponsored' user bases are key drivers for the number of paid for subscribers - Ford pay for 100,000 users and NYT have 324,000 paying individual subscribers. Think of the effort that goes into the Ford deal compared to the direct to consumer sales effort.

 

Holiday news

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This week I've returned from a fortnight's holiday and for what was always considered a 'quiet period', there was a lot of news in the technology world:

  • Apple's Steve Jobs stepped down. Earlier this year I read the book 'From Good to Great' where one of the requirements of a great company over a good, high performing company, is that the former is able to lose key individuals and still grow successfully. There have been many good companies but when a key person has left, the company has lost it's way. Apple is currently the best of the good companies, and only time will tell whether it's one of the greats. 
  • Eric Schmidt gave a great speech highlighting two key factors - the UK has invented so many high tech products, yet has been unable to commercialise them, and secondly the dwindling number of students studying maths and science. Both are sad positions to be in, and the second one is the worrying trend which needs to be addressed.
  • HP have bought Autonomy. I've never come across a company that so few people know what they do (Autonomy, not HP). 30,000 people a week probably sit in White Hart Lane wondering what their shirt sponsor does. As for the actual aquisition, I agree with Tech Market View that it's another sad day for British enterprise, and Eric Schmidt's words above simply echo our lack of commercialisation - why can't the UK create companies that buy US companies?
  • Google buying Motorola was a complete shock. The cynic in me thinks that Google bought the cheaper company, to spark Microsoft's interest in buying Nokia, which would eat up a huge amount of Microsoft's cash reserve and put it in a weaker position. Quite why any company would want to buy a handset provider - customers are extremely fickle and disloyal in the mobile market, and Apple are going from strength to strength. Oh, and there's the subject of huge investment required to knock the iPad off the top perch. 

There was some good news while I was away though, I finished reading Lance Armstrong's autobiography and whilst I won't do a full book review like usual, I thoroughly recommend it. I couldn't put the book down and ended up reading it in four days - not an easy task when you go on holiday with four kids.


 

Free news is [probably] fake news

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In case you missed it, there was a news story that developed over Twitter yesterday where a "Canadian research company" announced that users of Microsoft's Internet Explorer browser had a lower IQ than users of other Internet browsers.

The story was found to be a fake after a few hours, and highlighted my concerns over citizen journalism.

In the past, we tuned into TV news services such as the BBC, CNN or ITN as well as newspapers and radio stations. We knew whether a media agency was biased towards one political persuasion or another, and made up our own mind how much to "rationalise" the news.

With "citizen journalism" where anyone can tweet 140 characters and be taken genuinely for other users to retweet and spread the message, our news sources have become unknown, which means we probably shouldn't trust them. The public's insatiable appetite for instant news means that news sources can't be verified before shown on international news stations. The Internet Explorer story has highlighted this.

The problem facing news agencies is the requirement for second-by-second news and how to monetise quality, authentic reporting. Otherwise the news industry will become more unmoderated, unverified and will lead to more extreme and fake reporting.

Photo courtesy of Chris Metcalf


 

Voice mail hacking vs website security

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Whilst I think the actions of the journalists at News of the World (and perhaps other 'press' organisations) have been totally guilty of their conduct, I find it interesting how the phone companies have managed to get away relatively unscathed.

When a website user database is hacked, the press consider the lack of security of the website to be the guilty party. In the voicemail scenario, I've hardly seen any commentary around the mobile phone operators.

There are two main ways of hacking voicemails:

  1. The first method is to use the remote dial in number to access voicemails, enter the phone number of the person you're trying to gain access to, and guess the PIN code. The PIN is usually 4 digits, and companies simply 'brute force' their way into mailboxes. Brute force is simply a case of guessing 0000, then 0001 and so on.
  2. The second method is to clone a user's phone number using a proxy-style service. It's very simple - you dial a phone number (the proxy) and you'll hear a message asking what number you want your phone number to appear to be to the person you're about to call. You stay on the call and then enter the phone number you want to call, and the recipient sees the 'new' phone number you entered earlier. A number of offshoring cold call sales companies use this type of service to make it look like they are calling you from the UK. Voicemail hackers phone a proxy, enter the phone number of the person they are trying to hack, and the mobile phone voicemail thinks the incoming call is from that victim's number (and there's no need to enter a PIN number).

Neither of these methods are particularly elaborate. A simple Google search provides a long list of companies who offer the proxy service (although to be fair all the ones I went to said they didn't allow the service to be run for UK phone numbers).

In my opinion, the phone companies should do the following:

  1. Every time the remote voicemail is accessed a text message should be sent to the phone number. At the very least, each unsuccessful PIN number attempt should send a text message to the mobile warning of the attempt.
  2. If the wrong PIN number is entered more than say, four times, the voicemail should be "locked".
  3. Phone companies should be able to work out if a phone number has been cloaked (run through the proxy) more accurately.

 

Digital Media pace accelerating

The pace of Digital Media is still accelerating in what has always been a fast moving industry.

This week’s highlights (and it's only Wednesday!):

  1. New Google styling across their apps (basically it’s all gone darker and neater - it now looks like it’s been designed as a suite of tools, rather than cobbled together by a developer who has a passing interest in web design). I suspect the new styling is all part of the preparation of the Google Chromebooks
  2. And while talking of Google, Google+ has been launched. And they've also launched What Do You Love – a mashup of different Google Searches. WDYL is nice, but it's not immediately obvious how I'll use it usefully
  3. Zynga has announced it will IPO for around $2 billion, valuing the company at $15 billion. Zynga produce a number of online games including the hugely popular Farmville. $15b is a huge amount of money, however Zynga’s revenue is already $850m and as a parent of young children, I can see the industry has got lots more potential
  4. GoDaddy.com, of Domain Name fame is just about to be sold for $2 billion. GoDaddy were also going to go the IPO route a couple of years ago on revenues of $800m but have preferred the route of private investment companies

In other news:

  1. The clocks are ticking for a number of high street retailers with Thornton’s, Carpetright, Jane Norman and TJ Hughes all either making some massive cutbacks or shutting down altogether. Carpetright are blaming the recession – that people don’t want to buy big ticket items at the moment, but that wouldn’t apply to Thornton’s or TJ Hughes and Jane Norman who are clothing retailers. I think it’s more to do with customer’s shopping habits because clothing website ASOS is growing at the same time that the others are shutting down tens of shops. 
  2. National Insurance cards are going to be phased out. From now on we’ll get a letter instead. What were the cards ever used for anyway? And why not replace the cards with emails or a mobile app? It’s about time the government hired a CIO from industry and let loose with a clear remit on improving ROI.
I’ve been asked by some other sites to write some blog posts – check out Technorati and Endava's new posts, and I’ll let you know when Sitecore and CMSWatch both publish my articles too.

 


 

A cheap answer to the impending UK cyber attacks

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The news over the last week has been the biggest threat to the UK is cyber attacks on our power plants, transport infrastructure and water plants.

A simple solution - just disconnect them from the Internet. Anyway, why are they connected to the Internet in the first place?


 

Micro micro payments - the future of content

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Image courtesy of Joe Shlabotnik

Last September I gave an opening speech to the English Premiership clubs discussing loyalty and the future economy of content.

On the latter subject, my personal view is that content cannot stay free for the long term. Our children will look back on the web and ask us what is was like living in a bubble of free video (iPlayer), free radio (any radio station's website/ iPhone app), free high quality music (Spotify), free text content (over 99% of websites), free storage (YouTube, Flickr, etc.), free search (Google, etc.) - it's all free free free. I think we will answer our children by saying "Yes, it was a pretty cheap time - companies advertised on these sites, and we thought that covered the costs" - at least, this is the public's perception.

So what will replace this massive amount of free content and free applications?

At the Premiership event I said that in the future we will have some sort of e-wallet, and each web page that you navigate to, and each search will take fractions of a penny out of your wallet. Listening to music might cost a little more, and video might cost a little more than video. The funds from your e-wallet will be redirected in part to your ISP and a part to the content owner. A bit like local and premium rate phone numbers - some money goes to the telco provider, and some to the company who picks up the phone. My gut feel is that a regular user will spend £10-20 (in today's money) per month on this e-wallet.

That was all last September, and this week there was an article on TechCrunch (thanks to James at Endava for pointing this out) which described a new service called Flattr, which will adopt a similar-ish model. Flattr's model is more proactive though - the content owner needs to install a Flattr button, and the user needs to press the button for funds to go to that owner. It's a start though.


 

Financial axes start to swing in English football

These are among the latest reports from English football's financial frontline, a bloody turf of late.

Chester City reached the heights of the League Cup semi-finals in 1975, but was relegated from the football league 10 years ago, and yesterday no-one appeared in the High Court to oppose the clubs winding up. It had failed to pay a 26,125 tax bill.

On the same day there was a glimmer of hope for Portsmouth FC as administrator Andrew Andronikou said the club would finish the season and begin the new season in August 2010. However 85 employees will lose their jobs as part of the club's financial restructuring. Portsmouth's debts are around 78 million.

Also in the High Court on Wednesday, but escaping winding-up, were Championship club Cardiff City and League 1 club Southend United. Cardiff was given 56 days to pay off debts of around 1.9 million and Southend a shorter time to settle debts of 411,000.

Isn't it interesting that the sports which saturates the back pages of every newspaper and fills the headlines of every TV News bulletin, eclipsing virtually all other sports year round, is in so much financial trouble?

Even during the Winter Olympics, which was only given the credit it deserved after the Games finished, couldn't match football in terms of written content.

So with the news of Chester, Portsmouth, Southend and Cardiff, maybe the only sport that will can dismantle football, is going to be football itself.


 
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Bradley Howard

Head of Digital Media at Endava, although all the views in this blog are purely mine and not necessarily those of Endava.

 

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