Bradley Howard's Blog

Views of digital media, innovation, loyalty and business in the real world

Eight Digital Media Predictions for 2012

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To continue what I started in 2010 and 2011, here are my technology predictions for 2012:

1. The Olympics summer of proof-of-concepts

A huge amount of corporate investments will go into the Olympics, so we’ll see them spend their money on sponsorship and advertising more than product development. This will mean we’ll see a lot more cutting edge, proof of concepts (in adverts) rather than market-ready new product launches.

2. Social to level off, but will become a central hub for our activities.

Just like you currently open your browser to look at a number of websites, I expect your homepage will be a Facebook, Google+ or LinkedIn page which will then keep you within the ‘walled garden’. Expect to see a close tie up between the social networks and a search engine (Google or Bing).

3. A big tech failure

Expect one of the big websites to collapse which has been too dependent on more and more VC funding rather than its own revenues. We’ll witness the collapse and realise that our own data has gone with it, and then we’ll realise how important that data really is.

4. Mobile payments

It’s been a long time coming, but 2012 will be the start of mobile payments. I don’t think consumers will be paying via our phone in 2012, but you’ll see the banks start the education process using advertising and proof of concepts to enable consumers to see that by the end of 2013 we won’t need a credit card any longer (except when the battery runs out).

5. 3D printers after the Olympics

If it weren’t for the Olympics, I think 2012 would have been the year of the 3D printer. You can already buy them from under £2,000 and that printer will fall as demand increases. 3D printers will compete with Windows 8 for Christmas presents next year.

6. Akamai stock to rocket around EURO 2012 and the Olympics.

The Content Delivery Network Akamai will be covering the two biggest sports tournaments of the summer for most broadcasters around the world. With encoding bitrates (quality) constantly increasing to end viewers, they will be handling record levels of traffic during the summer. More traffic will mean significantly increased revenues.

7. More toolbars

In a bid to keep their logos on the screen in ever more engaging user interfaces, expect to see JavaScript toolbars being used more regularly, sitting like a taskbar inside your browser. This is not to be confused with browser toolbars - I don't think you'll be proactively installing anything.

8. Home automation to make a comeback

Its been possible to connect your household appliances to a computer for many years. The problem has been selling it as a technology rather than a function - and this made it marketable to geeks and no one else. With apps such as Sky Anywhere, people will want to turn their heating up, or switch the oven on while they are commuting home from work.

Photo courtesy of FL08 on Flickr


 

Google the answer engine, not 'just' the search engine

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I watched my nine year old son doing some homework this week on the computer and noticed for the first time that Google didn't just point him in the right direction to answer a question, it actually provided the answer.

He didn't think anything of it. He thinks that Google is there to provide answers, and is an absolutely reliable source of those answers. He doesn't question the validity of the source any more than I would have questioned Encyclopaedia Britannica when I was his age. I found that it was a further leap for Google-kind than even, two years ago.

The question was "Who watched the ancient olympics?"

He actually typed in "who watch the ancient olympics?" which actually brought the answer closer to the top of the results than the grammatically correct question. That's a separate issue I'll have to deal with and it was difficult to ascertain whether he typed in the incorrect grammar to obtain the best results rather than a genuine mistake.

Education is changing at an amazingly quick rate. My son's [state funded, primary] school has an interactive projector in every classroom, and is aiming that within two years will have a laptop per child.

Children are being taught to use Google to search for answers.

In Richard Watson's book, Future Minds, he describes how it took less than a generation to go from reading long form (e.g. a paper article on Ancient Olympics) to consuming bite sized snippets on a screen. I don't have a major problem with this leap, except for the fact that we need to understand and accept that general knowledge will deteriorate because children will only know exactly what they've searched for, rather than anything broader.

Reading the paper article, or even one of the search results' full articles would have taught my son that the games used to be one day long, then five days long, the different events, and even that in boxing, the boxers would wear hard leather straps with metal over their knuckles - ouch.

Image courtesy of Arkntina


 

Come on England bid

I'm really pleased with the news coverage of the England 2018 bid for the FIFA World Cup this week.

In the UK we have an unhealthy lack of interest in sport, as demonstrated by the press over the constant negative publicity for the Olympics.

Make no mistake, the Olympics will be a success - stadia will be sold out, huge parts of our infrastructure (transport, telecommunications, accomodation, media, tourism) will be massively improved on a number of levels, and the whole country will have a feel good factor for the summer of 2012.

Having the World Cup here 6 years after the Olympics will be such a great event - our favourite three sports in the UK are football, football and football... it is in our national DNA.


 

Vancouver 2010 web traffic stats

Some interesting statistics from http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic-news/n/news/the-vancouver-2010-olympic-winter-games-by-the-numbers_297556Ko.html:

  • 19.1 per cent of North Americans with Internet access visited the website this month
  • 4.6 per cent of people worldwide with Internet access visited the site this month

 

According to http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats2.htm, there are 259,561,000 Internet users in North America. So that means there were 49m users just from North America in one month.


 

Bradley Howard

Head of Digital Media at Endava, although all the views in this blog are purely mine and not necessarily those of Endava.

 

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